“A revolution is an idea that has found its bayonets.”
The world is becoming a virtual strategic space, where geostrategic boundaries and limitations are becoming obsolete. 1990’s was the age of social, political, and economic revolution. The fall of berlin wall was a prelude to the end of cold war, which altered the very core nature of international system. It was an end of ‘mostly stable’ bipolar system and start of American hegemony and unipolarity. Francis Fukuyama in his classical piece famously proclaimed Soviet disintegration to be the ‘’end of history’’. This political revolution had immense impact at the complex social and economic structures across the globe. A new economic and financial revolution was also underway aided by rapid advancement in computing technology; which led the way for ‘information based third wave economies’ that incorporate ‘information’ as fourth critical factor necessary for capital markets (others being capital, land and labour). In last three decades computing and automation has proliferated in every inch of industrial economy. These upheavals in economic and political status quo had a spiral effect inflicting structural changes on social behavior. A new social order was underway primarily based on bio-politics and fueled by identity crisis. Samuel Huntington in his quintessential piece ‘Clash of Civilization’ identified the post cold-war source of conflict to be cultural and religious identity. Pakistan which played a crucial part in decade long Afghan liberation against Soviet occupation was not immune to these global developments. Afghan war and Pakistan’s role as a gateway to Afghan Jihad had fundamentally altered the cultural fabric of the society not withstanding the help of ultra conservative Zia regime and their controversial policies and practices. The subsequent ‘war on terror’ initiated by United States after Al-Qaeda’s attack on American soil, hasn’t been any kind to Pakistan either; estimated losses of billions of dollars in economic output, devastation of critical infrastructure and a complete breakdown of law and order in various parts of the country. Only in terms of casualties, estimated 100,000 civilians and military personals has lost their life, keeping in mind that reliable data is hard to comeby in this part of the world; injuries are not counted and mental health issues like PTSD are not even discussed in government corridors, moreover they are considered taboo in society. There’s whole new generation of Pakistanis who has not seen anything other than war and bloodshed in their lives. They have experienced barrage of drone attacks in FATA to subsequent suicide bombings in major cities, and calculated attacks against soft targets including schools and universities over the course of last decade.
“The country is going through a critical/sensitive phase” is a famous political-speak often used to legitimize unconstitutional acts and policies. Although Pakistan is fighting a bloody insurgency at its western borders and major urban centers, the threat is far more potent and dangerous then some tinpot violent insurgency. This war that Pakistan is fighting, is perhaps more philosophical than ideological in nature. Pakistan is fighting “an information age war”, a fourth generation warfare, where beliefs or the perception of beliefs play perhaps the most important role in determining society’s cultural and social orientations. Ask any Pakistani, who he is? It will be very difficult for them to ‘identify’ in simple and concise terms. It is hypothesis of this article that fundamental conflict is lack of consensus on common identity, simply put ‘This is the war of Identity’ which threatens state’s very reason of existence. Pakistan face multi-dimensional threats nested together to destabilize its economy, social order, political discourse and law and order; in short the very soul of the state. This simultaneous attack on the major components of the state is the primary dogma of 4th generation warfare. If economy of any political unit is threatened it will have direct effect at said unit’s social order, which is primarily influenced through elaborate and systematic structure of incentives. Social order forms the basis for political discourse of the particular political entity and fundamental change in social order will for better or worse impact the direction of political discourse. The core rationale of any kind of politics is to bring order to social system and in modern world this means social stability and security. ‘Identity driven’ extremist political discourse can only be considered as further division and isolation. In order to fight this war Pakistan must understand the underlying relation between these components. This article will attempt to explain how these components are closely linked together and how can Pakistan prepare structural response to these existential threats.
Subversion and Fourth Generation Warfare
Psychological Operations (PSYOP) are planned operations to convey selected information and indicators to target audiences to influence their emotions, motives, and objective reasoning, and ultimately the behavior of governments, organizations, groups, and individuals.
PsyOps generally involve learning everything about the enemy state. The state is further classified into several audiences, namely the public, the officials, the journalists and more. The learning methodology involves documenting the beliefs, likes, dislikes, strengths, weaknesses, vulnerabilities, and fault-lines. These entities are exploited through face-to-face communication (involving seminars, conferences, fairs, ceremonies etc.), audio media (soundcloud, podcasts, radio etc.), and more including visual media (leaflets, posters, newspapers, books, magazines, flyers, advertisements, videos, GIFs, television etc.). This media could be sent through any means of communication/multimedia.
PsyOps could also lead to sow the seeds of mistrust between the civil and military institutions thus endangering the interests and sovereignty of the target state. PsyOps has since extensively been used in shaping and manipulating the consensus and narratives of audience, exposing the hidden secrets of target state to their public, misleading the narratives, thus mobilizing the movements in deterrence. Other than that, deceiving, promoting a narrative while diminishing another are some of the many interests in initiating PsyOps.
Subversion between India and Pakistan
India and Pakistan have a very peculiar relationship, constantly fluctuating over a variety of different core issues including Kashmir. With an increasing provocative narrative existing between the public on both sides, Social Media is no less than a battleground. Pakistan approving Cyber Crime Bill in the wake of arrests of Social Media Activists for blasphemous content, anti-army and anti-judiciary campaigns, and even the death sentences, Interior Minister of Pakistan, Chaudhry Nisar, ordered action against those maligning Pakistan army on social media, stating that national security and defense institutions would not be criticized so as to not to damage the prestige, reputation, honor and goodwill of security institutions. Not only do the political parties have well-managed social media cells to propagate their content so as to win vote banks, but of all the 64 banned outfits in Pakistan, 41 have hundreds of Facebook pages, Twitter handles, and individual user profiles. Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa has called for young educated people of the country to remain mindful and vigilant of hostile ideas being propagated on social media.
India, on the other hand, is involved in two wars on social media battleground, against a mutual enemy, Pakistan, the virtual battlegrounds being Kashmir and Pakistan itself. The martyrdom of Burhan Wani, a young Kashmiri freedom fighter who was a poster-boy for Kashmiris and a social media activist, gave a new tide to the freedom struggle of Kashmir. In the wake of ban on media outlets, Kashmiris turned to Social Media to expose their poor plight to world’s humanitarian organizations. India reacted in banning Social Media; not for once but over 31 times during the period of 2012 to 2016. Rajnath Singh, Home Minister of India, accused Pakistani youth of inciting youths in Kashmir on Social Media to storm encounter-sites to help holed-up freedom fighters. Rajnath being dumbfounded by Social Media, Indian Army Chief Gen. Bipin Rawat also expressed deep concerns on Kashmiri youth joining the ranks of Freedom Fighters through Social Media. Accusing Pakistani youth of using Social Media to encourage the Kashmiri youth, India itself is evidently blamed for inciting the anti-Pakistan narratives under the disguise of Balochi native accounts. The capture of Kulbhushan Jadhav exposed the terrorism and spy network fueled by India in Pakistan. Lieutenant General H.S. Panag, served in Northern and Central Command of Indian army, talks about inciting PsyOps openly on Twitter. He says, “Our (Indian) strategy must focus on direct covert actions & exploiting the Pak fault lines i.e. Baluchistan, FATA, Baltistan, Shias & Economy.” A clear message sent by India, Pakistan is constantly fighting trolls even on CPEC, with Indian intentions being disseminating a sense of insecurity on the initiative between Pakistan and China.
Political Implications for Pakistan
The political space of Pakistan has always been on the influence of India’s diplomacy; either directly with Pakistan or via the international institutional bodies. The stance of Pakistan on its war against terrorism has been clear since the operation Zarb-e-Azb took place. The country has expressed its serious concerns in curbing the national and international terrorism and proxies in the region. The accusations of nurturing terrorist elements on Pakistan have always been denied by Pakistan. But the recent implications between the current civil government of Nawaz and Pakistan’s military institutions has angered the former to an extent that they compromised the very integrity of the country.
Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan’s ousted former Prime Minister, said in an interview that Pakistan did 26/11 Mumbai attacks in India. Soon after the interview, the statement hid the headlines on both sides of the border. It further stretched the distance between the government and its military. The Pakistani public strongly criticized the statement of the former Prime Minister and termed it as a trechorous act against the state.
The problems for Pakistan didn’t end here. The rise of Pashtun Tahafuzz Movement (PTM), a tailor-made movement, which is keen in accusing Pakistan’s security and military institutions for the rights of Pashtuns. The likes of Achak Zai, Muttahida Qaomi Movement (MQM) in Karachi and several other Sindhi movements in such a time as these suits outside enemies and can put more pressure on Pakistan’s military institutions to succumb before external proxies. The talks of putting Pakistan into grey-list of FATF and the United States ranting about declaring Pakistan a terrorist state, while the rise of such movements in Pakistan clearly speak another side of the story which suits the anti-Pakistan elements, within and outside.
Economic Implications for Pakistan
Pakistan’s return to electoral democracy in 1988 after the death of President Zia only lasted until the next military coup in 1999. In this period International system transformed from bipolar world to unipolar, beginning the age of universal democratization and liberal market economy. Pakistan too caught up with global trend of economic liberalization along the lines of neoliberal economic model, but unstable political and security situation killed any chances of economic reforms. Inexperienced political elite with their narrow and short term political goals failed to grasp the gravity of situation. Their policies ran contrary to their interests; on one hand financial capital of the country, Karachi was mired by violent ethnic conflict and on other hand Pakistan was actively meditating in Afghan civil war, primarily an ethnic conflict; while meditation here implies staunch support of a certain faction. Reform agenda was further derailed by economic sanctions imposed by international community in response of nuclear tests in 1998, subsequent Kargil war with India and military coup in 1999. Although these sanctions were lifted when Pakistan became a front line ally in war against terror in 2001. Pakistan’s sovereign territory became a battleground in aftermath of American invasion of Afghanistan; Pakistan’s North Western Frontier Province and FATA were considered safe sanctuaries by jihadists for decades during and after Soviet occupation.
The war in Afghanistan was brought into their own backyard by flawed state policies. It started with armed insurgency in tribal areas and quickly escalated in full blown nationwide violent opposition to the state and state apparatus. Urban centers were systematically targeted frightening local public and inflicting economic losses with a sole purpose to end the writ of state. Violence was only one of many tools that extremists employed, it was their strategic communications which played an important in their success. Their deliberate attempts to target urban centers were to paralyze national economy. Public disappointment with ruling elite can be considered as a precondition or the first step of 4th generation war, and what’s the fastest way to achieve public dissatisfaction then to destroy its economic base, creating an environment of terror and forcing economic activity to move out or to cease exist; thus creating mass unemployment and further destabilizing social structure.
Pakistan returned to a democratic rule in 2008. The security situation was grave, economy was in complete disarray, public confidence in ruling establishment was at an all time low; while social reaction towards political orientation dramatically changed. Furthermore it was hoped that revival of electoral democracy will encourage Pakistan to embrace global norm based order but rapid geostrategic developments and shifting balance of power in the region had prompted Pakistan to reconsider its geostrategic interests. However Islamabad was not helped by global financial crisis and paid a hefty price for deteriorating economic conditions.
Joining war on terror although helped Pakistan end international isolation and economic sanctions, in the long Pakistan incurred heavy economic losses. According to Pakistan Economic Survey 2016/17, economy suffered $123 billion on account of loss of economic opportunities and damage to critical infrastructure. It is important to note, facts and figures in this part of the world are often exaggerated or understated depending upon the situation. Either way this figure at least provides us with the yardstick as to how Pakistan values its losses and gains. Attacks on urban financial centers were designed to suck life out of Pakistan’s economy. These act of war (terrorism) did not always meant large scale violence, indeed the urban warfighting tactics included kidnapping for ransom, extortion/protection money, and targeted attacks against individuals and minority groups aimed at destabilizing communal peace. These tactics were utilized as a dual edge sword which fulfilled various objectives. Kidnapping for ransom became essential part of terror financing while targeted attacks further widened ever growing social and cultural divide in the society.
Karachi is considered Pakistan’s financial capital, where ethnic and sectarian divide exist since the foundation of the country; in this 4th generation war, this division was specifically exploited. While Karachi was in ethnic chaos in 1990’s, lack of economic growth further fueled identity crisis among fast growing young population. Economic stagnation was a direct result of weak and incompetent political leadership with absolutely no vision whatsoever. Geostrategic developments in the region then took a turn for worse. Being a frontline state against ‘War on terror’, Pakistan was the easiest target to attack. Jihadist training camps and strong indigenous fundamentalist base inside the country didn’t exactly help the Pakistani cause either. Karachi being the major Pakistani seaport serves as maritime and shipping hub for landlocked Afghanistan. Karachi was hit hardest in terms of lost revenue and economic opportunities, estimated to be a major bulk of mentioned $123 billion notwithstanding thousands of people lost their lives and numerous injured; and lets not even discuss the extraordinary damage to public and private property. Pakistan’s largest metropolitan city developed no-go (restricted/prohibited) areas, and presented a view of nothing but a decaying slum, where local warlords ruled. The gang wars were rampant often aided by political elite who were divided across ethnic and sectarian lines. Revival of quasi-democracy could not stabilize daming security condition of the city. This resulted in a negative impact on services sector, manufacturing industry and Foreign Direct Investments.
Peshawar and Quetta, the two provincial capitals of KPK and Balochistan shared the same fate. These attacks targeted place of worships, military installations, government buildings, commercial areas, residential quarters, buses and public transport vehicles, even schools, universities and hospitals. The incident that perhaps symbolized Pakistan’s economic isolation unfolded in Lahore when Sri Lankan Cricket team came under coordinated shooting attack enroute to Qaddafi stadium. Quetta witnessed a strategically planned campaign against ethnic Hazara community to inflict maximum carnage and to broaden ever growing cultural and social divide. Violence and political instability created a high risk economy, industrial base devoid of basic necessities such as power resource, skilled labour, and adequate technology was unable to support one the fastest growing population in the world. Poverty in the country was increasing which encouraged dissatisfied populus to look for alternate means to survive.
The recent FATF turmoil is only a part of this sequence, intended to pin down Pakistan before the external proxies. Pakistan’s Interior Minister, Ahsan Iqbal, maintained any anti-Pakistan decision taken by the Finance Action Task Force (FATF) would have negative impacts on country’s war against terrorism and extremism.
Atlhough Pakistan has already taken concrete steps under the National Action Plan (NAP) against the terrorism, but still FATF and like-minded international bodies are being used to interpret Pakistan’s efforts as null, terming it as a terror state.
Sustained and strategic violence not only brought havoc on economic system but also forced individuals to challenge their long held beliefs and identities. These economic inadequacies led to the fundamental transformation in the structural fabric of society. This economic destruction is a core component of 4th generation war doctrine. It is be noted, that economic devastation is in itself an attack on social order and by extension, an attack on structural fabric of the society.
Military and Terrorism:
Lt. Gen. HS Panag(R), India’s Northern Command, said, “#LC 6 Our strategy must focus on direct covert actions&exploiting the Pak fault lines ie Baluchistan,FATA,Baltistan,Shias&economy.”
Although Pakistan is home to several sectarian traditions, its overwhelmingly majority is Sunni Muslims, with a sizable Shia minority. Sunni tradition is further decentralized into three major sub-groups; Deobandi, Ahle-Hadith and Barelvis. Everything that is wrong with Pakistan today — its “distorted social and economic development”, sectarian divisions among various traditions, its “obsession” with India, rise of extremism and proliferation of military dictatorships is a direct or indirect result of confused sense of its identity. This confusion runs so deep that more than after seven decades since its creation, even the definition of who is a “Pakistani” is not clear; with the Indian Muslim migrants still being regarded as outsiders by ethnic communities who claim themselves to be the “real” Pakistanis virtuous of their historical roots in the region.
This creates a dangerous nexus between identity crisis and proliferation of fundamentalist religious beliefs. Furthermore Pakistan can be described as a mix of fairly uneducated and ignorant masses with dismal economic prospects. A long lasting struggle for Afghan Jihad and subsequent war on terror has destroyed the last rammanent of social structure in the country. This nexus is further exploited by extremists through successful dissemination of information. The use of the oldest trick in the book, propaganda and misperception had a very strategic rationale; to bring an end to social order and to revisie the direction of political discourse. And a Taliban faction came striking close to achieving it, when Islamist militant under the leadership of Sufi Muhammad took over Swat region and forced Pakistan to sign peace treaty allowing sharia law to be implemented parallel to Pakistani law. Although Swat was liberated by Pakistan military after a major offensive operation in 2009, but such security threats cannot be discounted when militant groups freely operated inside the country.
There are several militant groups based in Pakistan with diverse ethnic composition, objectives, tactics, and sectarian commitments. Lashkar-e-Taiba was raised in late 1980’s to fight Soviet occupation in Afghanistan, although it now claims to struggle for Kashmiri liberation only. Their principle theatre of operation is Kashmir and India, and it relies heavily on ethnic Punjabis and Kashmiris to provide financial and logistical support. Deobandi groups are closely linked with each other through an extensive network of religious seminaries known as madrassah. The leaders of the network were theological architect of Afghan jihad, and first produced Afghan and then Pakistani Taliban. Pakistani Taliban who emerged in 2004 has close ties with Al-Qaeda and Afghan Taliban. Their targets include variety of military, police and government infrastructure as well as civilian centers. Splinter Deobandi groups like Sipah-e-Sahaba and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi have adopted sectarian orientation. These groups are involved in waging violent sectarian conflict against Shia minority.
These militant groups, in the rundown to General elections of 2013, targeted number of left wing and secular political parties including Pakistan Peoples Party and Awami National Party and tried to prevent them from campaigning. However contemporary domestic developments signal a paradigm shift. Some of the militant groups are embracing “apparently moderate” Islamic views in their aspiration to become part of mainstream political discourse. It is part of public record, that LET affiliated political entity emerged as fourth largest party in recently contested by-elections in former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s constituency. This is not necessarily a cause to panic, but sure as hell warrant a comprehensive investigation of growing socio-political and socio-religious trends.
Notably all militant groups operate under the banner of jihad along with social charitable organizations. These social organizations play an important role in lives of poor and often provide basic necessities fulfilling state responsibilities, leading to growing resentment among masses. These socio-religious organizations take advantage of opportunity provided by failure of state machinery and capacity. It is also worthwhile to enquire Pakistan’s understanding of term Jihad and its connection with complex identity shift. Though a fiercely contested concept albeit hardly understood. At one extreme, it represents “a peaceful personal struggle”, and at other end it meant violent struggle. There is also a question of who has the authority to wage armed jihad. Majority of Pakistanis support a compromise of both extreme ends with 44% of population believed Jihad is both a personal struggle and protecting the Muslim Ummah through war.
Western strategic observers often claimed Pakistan as a ‘ground zero’ for global jihadist movement. Whatever role Pakistan played, it sure as hell paid a huge social cost. The war on terror, which Pakistan is fighting has passed its ideological stage, and have entrenched itself into Pakistan’s economic, social, political and religious order. After decades of religious indoctrination and bloodshed this war has entered into its final phase, a battle for country’s soul. Psychologist found that most people are risk-averse when faced with chance to grab gains, but more risk-acceptant in forestalling losses. Pakistan is on that point of history, where only thing it has got to lose is its existence. It is high time for Pakistan to envision strategic and structural economic, political and cultural reforms. Economic insolvency and social injustice needs priority notice. These two factors play an important role in determining people’s identity and beliefs.
Pakistani economy is still semi-industrialized with large agrarian base. Manufacturing industry has taken a especial hit in the recent years because of power scarcity. Services sector has increased its share of the GDP, but bureaucratic hurdles and over taxation are a roadblock in any sort of improvement.
The surgical strike drama by India is another playcard by India to render Pakistan as a terror state. Although several Indian soldiers have made it to Social Media in their video messages, calling the surgical strike a ‘drama’, the Indian military was keen in soothing the angered nation after Uri attacks in Jammu Kashmir by Kashmiri freedom fighters, an attack in which several Indian forces personnel were killed. Soon after the claims of the ‘attack’, Pakistan’s military dismissed the India’s assertion and termed it as an ‘illusion.’ Be it the 26/11 attacks, continuous LOC firings from India which has killed hundreds of innocent Pakistanis, or the fake surgical strikes, India is playing every possible card in pressurizing Pakistan.
Kulbhushan Jadev is yet another evidential face of India’s sponsored terrorism in Pakistan. Being a serving Indian Navy officer, and a facilitator to the terrorist groups nurtured by India in Afghanistan and planted in Pakistan, India’s terror face exposed yet again, but Pakistan’s civil government failed to put up the issue internationally. There is no saying how many Kulbhushan Jadevs are there in Pakistan, and perperating, planning and financing the terror attacks.
Several implications emerge from this study. First one is the state of identity crisis which results from decades long islamization process. There is a concrete evidence that Pakistani attitude can be improved through auxiliary economic strategy. Second implication is considerable variation within identity crisis across provincial lines, with Sindh and Balochistan aligned along more nationalist line while Punjab and KPK have adopted more pluralistic view of united Umma. Third implication is the conformation of legitimacy and support for Jihad waged by non-state actors. When analyzed together they act as fundamental base for proliferation of militancy. As every militant outfit has distinct identity, targets, objective, and theatre of operation sustainable security apparatus must be ethnically tailored, and group-specific to achieve any gains.
Cultural and Media War:
Rajnath Singh, India’s Minister of Home Affairs, tweeted, “Pakistan is a terrorist state and it should be identified and isolated as such.”
The war and resistance between the two countries have not limited only to the battlefields but to the cultures, entertainment and media industry of both sides. India’s movie industry, Bollywood, is keen in making movies that are more anti-Pakistan in nature than they are to being nationalist. Moreover, the sports culture between the two countries have also a strong tendency in such regard. Kashmir issue is one of the key conflicts the former industries have waged a war upon.
Hamza Ali Abbasi, a renowned film actor, has spoken on Kashmir dispute against India’s atrocities in Jammu Kashmir on number of occassions. Facebook, one of the largest social networks, also removed Hamza’s Facebook page for being vocal on Kashmir issue soon after the martyrdom of Burhan Wani. Shahid Afridi, Shoaib Akhtar, Moeen Khan among many others spoke against India’s atrocities in Jammu Kashmir while Maj. Gen. Asif Ghafoor defended Shahid Afridi against Gautam Gambhir criticism among many other cricketers.
Indian film producers have banned Pakistani actors for ever working in the Indian industry over Kashmir crisis. Shiv Sena, a hardline Hindutva terrorist outfit of India, which is strong opponent of Muslims and other minorities in India, also called for banning Pakistani actors in India’s film industry. Although, when asked about Malala Yousufzai, Shiva Sena was of the opinion that, ‘She’s different. She’s not a terrorist!”
Of all such contribution made by different sections of India’s soceity, the Indian media is no different. Indian media is very keen in being a strong opponent to Pakistan. Be it the issue of Kashmir or Hafiz Saeed or Masood Azhar, the headline are always accusing Pakistan of all the events. Pakistani media, however, is far behind in such case, being more leaned towards the submission of narrative to India.
The escalated tensions from the different sections of both the countries can further escalate the conflict into a full blown war.
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 Ibid, 509.
Snyder, Jack, “Both Fox and hedgehog”, Davis, James W., ed. Psychology, strategy and conflict: Perceptions of Insecurity in International Relations. Routledge, 2013, 18.